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Positive outlook for HF house market

Huge shortage of houses up to £250,000 pushes prices up, say analysts.

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There is huge lack of supply of houses at the moment in Hammersmith and Fulham, according the Hometrack latest housing market survey. It says that this is happening especially at the lower end of the market and properties valued under £250,000 are selling very quickly. Halifax, another well-known house price index, also highlights the demand for properties at this price level.

"Over the coming year the demand for properties in London will continue to be strong with mainstream house prices - those properties up to £250,000 - expected to grow at around 8% during 2004", concludes the report for the fourth quarter 2003 published last week.

Halifax report says: "The lack of quality housing stock in the UK - particularly in London and the South East - is certainly contributing to the upward pressure on house prices. Although the Barker review, published in December, will have a major impact on the supply side, the real impact of the report will not be felt for a number of years."

"If current rates of house-building are not increased in London and the South East, and the decline established over the past 15 years reversed, this will mean a cumulative shortage of dwellings in these two regions of around 500,000 by 2021 if Government projections of household numbers are correct. These shortages of housing provide much of the explanation why houses not only cost more in these regions but also why these regions lead the way in terms of starting new bouts of house price inflation."

Both reports show an increase of house prices in the borough. In the Halifax index, prices in Hammersmith and Fulham during the last quarter of 2003 increased by 3%. The report also highlights the impact of the expansion of Heathrow: "To the West, prices in Uxbridge and along the M4 route have seen house price rises in anticipation of the construction of Terminal Five at Heathrow airport. But this has only seen the area catch up with other districts further into London such as Chiswick and Hammersmith, which have found house prices more static".

Hometrack report show a rise in house prices in the borough in December of 0.4%, among the top five in London, but it is Fulham the area which is pushing prices up.

John Wriglesworth, Hometrack's housing economist, comments: "2003 was a year of mixed fortunes for the UK housing market. The Iraqi war in the first half had a significant adverse effect on consumer confidence, and the number of housing transactions fell almost 30% compared to the previous year. House prices were also adversely affected, but mostly at the expensive top end of the market, mainly situated in the South East. London luxury apartments, previously selling for over £1 million, typically experienced price falls of over 15% in the first six months."

" London has performed worse than the country as a whole with prices seeing falls throughout the middle of the year, most noticeably at the top end. However, the market is looking increasingly positive and price rises are now being seen in more expensive boroughs such as Kensington & Chelsea, Fulham and Islington."

Halifax House Price Index Q4 2003

Hometrack housing market survey December 2003