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LONDON IS WARMING

Winters will become warmer by 1 to 2ºC by the 2050s and by up to 3.5ºC by the 2080s.
Summers in the 2050s will be 1.5 to 3.5ºC hotter, and as much as 5ºC hotter by the 2080s. Higher water demand, less water supply. Risks of flooding. Find out the effects on transport, health, biodiversity, business and finance, tourism and your lifestyle.

The London's Warming, launched last week by the Minister for the Environment, report examines the likely impacts of climate change on London. This is the first such report on a major city and has an urban focus.

The report highlights the unique sensitivities of London to global warming because of the existence of the urban heat island effect. Likely impacts include increased flooding, drier summers, wetter winters, increased disruption to transport and greater opportunities for tourism and recreational activities.

Key findings:

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Winters will become warmer by 1 to 2ºC by the 2050s and by up to 3.5ºC by the 2080s. Summers in the 2050s will be 1.5 to 3.5ºC hotter, and as much as 5ºC hotter by the 2080s. Higher summer temperatures will become more frequent, and very cold winters will become increasingly rare. Daily maximum temperatures of 33ºC, which currently occur about one day per summer in the south-east, could occur 10 days per summer by the 2080s (medium high emissions scenario). In central London, the urban heat island effect currently adds up to a further 5 to 6ºC to summer night temperatures, and will intensify in the future Winters will become wetter by between 10 to 20% by the 2050s and up to 30% by the 2080s. Summers may become drier by 20 to 40% in the 2050s and may be 50% drier by the 2080s. Heavy winter rainfall could occur twice as frequently by the 2080s. Mean winter wind speeds may increase by as much as 10% by the 2080s, though this is very uncertain. The number of storms each winter crossing the UK could increase from five (the 1961-90 average) to eight by the 2080s. Summer cloud cover may decrease by as much as 18% by the 2080s. Summer soil moisture may reduce by 50% or more by the 2080s. Snowfall amounts will decrease by between 50 to 100%. Relative sea level in the Thames Estuary will continue to rise by between 26 and 86cm by the 2080s and will rise further in the future. Current extreme sea levels will be experienced more frequently. Within the next 100 years any cooling effect due to weakening of the Gulf Stream would be more than compensated for by increased temperatures resulting from climate change. Source: UKCIP and the London Download the report here Uk Climate Impact Programme Web site	Higher temperatures	There is likely to be an increase in the demand for cooling and thus for electricity in summer. Against this, there will be a reduction in demand for winter heating providing a financial advantage for bill payers and reducing incidences of fuel poverty.
	Flooding	Increased risk of flooding is expected for many parts of London. More frequent intense winter rainfalls are expected to increase the likelihood of flooding by rivers and flash flooding when urban drainage systems become overwhelmed. Rising sea levels and possible increased winter storminess would require more closures of the Thames Barrier.
	Water resources	Water demand will be heightened during hot, dry summers. Longer summers with higher temperatures and lower rainfall wil reduce soil moisture and the chance to replenish groundwater supplies. River flows are likely to be lower in summer and higher in winter. Lower river flows in summer will raise water temperatures and aggravate water quality problems in the Thames and its tributaties, especially following heavy summer storms.
	Health	Poorer air quality poses health problems for asthmatics as well as causing damage to plants and buildings. Higher levels of mortality related to summer heat stress are expected. Higher winter temperatures would be likely to lead to a reduction in winter cold spell related mortality.
	Biodiversity	Warmer weather would favour conditions for increased competition from exotic species as well as the spread of disease and pests, affecting both fauna and flora. Rising sea levels will threaten rare saltmarsh habitats. Increased summer drought will cause stress to wetlands and beech woodland. Earlier springs, longer frost-free seasons and reduced snowfall could affect dates of bird egg-laying, as well as the emergence, first flowering and health of leafing or flowering plants.
	Built environment	The building industry will be likely to benefit from an increased number of available construction days. Subsidence will worsen as clay soils dry out in summer and autumn. Alternate wetting of clays in winter and drying of clays in summer may cause increased ground movement resulting in increased potential for damage to underground pipes and cables. Increased temperatures will reduce comfort of occupants in domestic, commercial and public buildings, and could lead to business disruption.
	Transport	London's transport system and ancillary services are vulnerable to disruption from flooding and other extreme weather events that are expected to increase in frequency and intensity. Increased temperatures on the London Underground, exacerbated by the urban heat island effect, will lead to passenger discomfort. Hotter summers may damage elements of transport infrastructure, causing buckled rails and rutted roads, with their attendant disruption and repair costs. Higher temperatures will lead to a reduction in cold weather-related disruption.
	Business and finance	The London insurance industry could be exposed to an increased volume of claims from wind stroms and flood events. Lower income households may find it more difficult to access adequate insurance cover in the face of increased flood risk. The risk management of potential climate change impacts may provide significant opportunities for London businesses.
	Tourism	Increased temperatures could attract more visitors to London, benefiting the tourist sector. Leisure and recreational facilities and tourist attractions will need to be able to cope with climate change by providing a pleasant environment for visitors. High temperatures could lead to residents leaving London in search of a more comfortable environment on holidays or breaks.
	Lifestyle	Outdoor living may be more favoured, although some members of society may be less able to take advantage of this due to lack of facilities locally, fear of crime or other forms of social exclusion. Green and open spaces will be used more intensively.